Last night, models made no progress in agreeing with one another though one little, important feature was hinted at by nearly all of them. This little feature is a band of rain that is driven off the NW periphery of the low and forms almost its own micro-entity. This is a self sustaining band of precipitation displaced well over 500 miles from the center of the storm and feeds off the energy in the water-like a tropical storm. Another characteristic of tropical cyclones they share is that when they hit land, they dissipate. Unlike tropical cyclones however, they do not have any winds associated with them (any wind is from the low out in the ocean) and they are short-lived like a band of thunderstorms passing through on a summer day. Anyway, the NAM model is by far the most aggressive in terms of both the low development and the band of showers. The GFS brings the band in very weak and puts the low closer to shore but weaker. The euro brings the low farther out than the GFS but stronger and dissipates the band of showers before it reaches the coast. I am going with a GFS/euro hybrid by taking the euro's idea of a stronger low a little farther offshore and combining it with the GFS's idea that the band of showers makes it to the coast.
This graphic shows where impacts may occur. I expect the timing of this to be late Monday into early Tuesday