-This will not be a significant storm. There is agreement that there will be nothing more than rainy and breezy conditions at the very worst with a much more likely scenario being that the immediate coast gets affected with a band of light rain and breezy conditions.
-Timing. There is solid agreement that the rain, if any, will impact the region late Monday into early Tuesday. Not much disagreement on that front.
However, the models still have no nail down 2 key aspects of the forecast.
-Track. The general consensus it that the storm will come up the coast and move to the SE of the 40N 70W benchmark and then move north or north-northwest towards the Canadian Maritimes.
-Intensity. The strength of the low is also very important. The NAM model has a 990mb low where the GFS has a 1008mb low. This ranges from pretty strong to pretty weak.
What my forecast calls for. I think a storm of weak intensity will track just SE of the benchmark. It will then move N towards the Maritimes. I think that the only impacts will be a band of light rain affecting the coast and light winds also limited to the coast.